Boeing and Airbus

Executive summary

What changed: Boeing Commercial Airplanes went from -2.7% in the second quarter to -6.5% in the third, on 161 deliveries against 171; the shares fell 10.7% on the day. Airbus delivered 196 aircraft in its third quarter against 201 a year earlier and left all three full-year targets unchanged, and its reported EBIT for the nine months, €4,550m, flattered its adjusted €4,495m because the adjustments swung from -€781m to +€55m.

Our view: Airbus is priced on execution it has largely delivered and Boeing on execution it has still to show. Taking both to 2028 so the comparison sits in one year, Boeing's base case earns $5.34 a share, which is 32.1x at the 30 October 2026 close, against 20.1x for Airbus on its published 2027 consensus carried to the same year. On Boeing's own figures that year is 21.7x enterprise value to operating profit and a 2.2% free cash flow yield. Those figures require a commercial margin of 6.0% and 740 deliveries, neither yet produced. On that reading Boeing is not cheap against Airbus on the strength of recovery alone; it is an option on the recovery arriving, and the first production milestone has already moved.

What changes the view: for Boeing, a commercial margin above breakeven in the fourth quarter as first confirmation and held there for two consecutive quarters as a change of reading, with capital expenditure peaking rather than rising from $4,053m annualised. For Airbus, a fourth quarter that misses 323 deliveries by more than a few aircraft, or a second consecutive quarter of falling deliveries. Every estimate rests on assumptions printed as figures, so a reader who disagrees with one can see what it moves.